Cardiff 2–3 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Swansea

S. Kaba 83'

J. Philogene 35'

B. Cabango 90+9'

L. Cullen 33'

J. Piroe 3'

4/1/2023

Championship · Round 39Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cardiff40%

×Draw27%

Swansea33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.16

Cardiff

1.31

Swansea

1.16

Cardiff creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

1.07

creates per match

0.99

1.33

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Cardiff

1.07

Swansea

0.99

allows per match

Cardiff

1.33

Swansea

1.55

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Cardiff-0.03on par

Swansea+0.01on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

67%

Cardiff or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

60%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

18%

Swansea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

73%

Cardiff 2+ goals

38%

Cardiff 3+ goals

14%

Swansea 1+ goals

69%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

55%

Swansea (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 26 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.55 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.07 + Swansea defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Swansea attack 0.99 + Cardiff defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cardiff scores more

40%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

33%

Cardiff at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

S. Kaba

Cardiff · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

J. Piroe↳ H. Darling

33'

L. Cullen

35'

J. Philogene↳ S. Kaba

45+1'

Ryan Manning

46'

R. Sawyers← C. ODowda

46'

50'

52'

55'

57'

58'

61'

R. Colwill← A. Rinomhota

61'

C. Wickham← S. Ojo

64'

J. Allen← L. Walsh

64'

J. Latibeaudiere← L. Cullen

76'

J. Paterson← H. Darling

83'

S. Kaba↳ R. Colwill

90+7'

Cédric Kipré

90'

Joël Piroe

90+3'

M. Romeo← P. Ng

90+9'

B. Cabango↳ J. Latibeaudiere

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffSwansea

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots10

1Corners3

19Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target4

4Off Target3

2Blocked3

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

350Total Passes530

255Accurate Passes437

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls11

2Yellow Cards5

4Offsides0