Swansea vs Cardiff — Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 24+ matches
Swansea42%
Cardiff30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Swansea creates 23% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Swansea ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Swansea at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 24 matches
Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Swansea attack 1.18 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27
Cardiff attack 0.85 + Swansea defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Swansea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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Leeds
West Brom
Aston Villa
Derby
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
Nottingham ForestSwansea
Brentford
Sheffield Wednesday
Hull City
Preston
Blackburn
Stoke City
Birmingham
Wigan
QPR
Reading
Millwall
Rotherham
Bolton
IpswichIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Swansea host Cardiff on Saturday, 20 March 2021 at 17:30. The match is part of the Championship 2018/2019 season.
Championship: Swansea 0–1 Cardiff
Cardiff beat Swansea 1-0 in Championship on March 20, 2021.
Goals: A. Flint (8').
Swansea controlled possession (75%) and registered 23 shots to 9.
The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.