Burnley 0–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

L. Fer 82'

8/13/2016

Premier League · Round 1Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Burnley42%

×Draw27%

Swansea31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.12

Burnley

1.36

Swansea

1.12

Burnley creates 21% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 74 away

1.04

creates per match

0.93

1.31

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Burnley

1.04

Swansea

0.93

allows per match

Burnley

1.31

Swansea

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

69%

Burnley or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

58%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

20%

Swansea wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

74%

Burnley 2+ goals

39%

Burnley 3+ goals

16%

Swansea 1+ goals

67%

Swansea 2+ goals

31%

Swansea 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

58%

Swansea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 157 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

Swansea attack 0.93 + Burnley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more

42%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

31%

Burnley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Fer

Swansea · M

8.2

Match Events

42'

David Jones

53'

Jordi Amat

60'

G. Sigurðsson← L. Britton

64'

J. Montero← M. Barrow

67'

Stephen Ward

75'

J. Guðmundsson← S. Arfield

80'

Matthew Lowton

82'

L. Fer

87'

L. Jutkiewicz← D. Jones

87'

Àngel Rangel← W. Routledge

90'

Federico Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleySwansea

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots17

7Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots17

3On Target9

5Off Target6

2Blocked2

6Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

353Total Passes383

249Accurate Passes297

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2