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Swan City vs Sarasota Paradise — USL League Two 2018

Swan City
Swan City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sarasota Paradise
Sarasota Paradise
5/25/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 3Kathleen High School Stadium Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Swan City24%
×Draw24%
Sarasota Paradise51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swan City
1.08
Sarasota Paradise
1.68

Sarasota Paradise creates 56% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Swan City
1.00
Sarasota Paradise
2.28

allows per match

Swan City
1.08
Sarasota Paradise
1.17

finishing

Swan City+0.00on par
Sarasota Paradise+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swan City ↓

Sarasota Paradise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Swan City or draw
49%
Swan City or Sarasota Paradise
76%
Draw or Sarasota Paradise
76%

Winning margin

Swan City wins by 2+
9%
Sarasota Paradise wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Swan City 1+ goals
66%
Swan City 2+ goals
29%
Swan City 3+ goals
10%
Sarasota Paradise 1+ goals
81%
Sarasota Paradise 2+ goals
50%
Sarasota Paradise 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Swan City (draw refunded)
32%
Sarasota Paradise (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swan City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Sarasota Paradise away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swan City attack 1.00 + Sarasota Paradise defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sarasota Paradise attack 2.28 + Swan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Swan City scores more
24%
level
24%
Sarasota Paradise scores more
51%

Sarasota Paradise at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sarasota Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swan City vs Sarasota Paradise

Swan City and Sarasota Paradise drew 0-0 in USL League Two on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Kathleen High School Stadium Field in Lakeland, Florida.