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Sarasota Paradise vs Swan City — USL League Two 2018

Sarasota Paradise
Sarasota Paradise
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Swan City
Swan City
6/1/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 5Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sarasota Paradise76%
×Draw15%
Swan City8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarasota Paradise
2.49
Swan City
0.69

Sarasota Paradise creates 261% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sarasota Paradise
2.15
Swan City
0.58

allows per match

Sarasota Paradise
0.80
Swan City
2.83

finishing

Sarasota Paradise+0.00on par
Swan City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarasota Paradise ↓

Swan City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sarasota Paradise or draw
92%
Sarasota Paradise or Swan City
85%
Draw or Swan City
24%

Winning margin

Sarasota Paradise wins by 2+
54%
Swan City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sarasota Paradise 1+ goals
92%
Sarasota Paradise 2+ goals
71%
Sarasota Paradise 3+ goals
45%
Swan City 1+ goals
50%
Swan City 2+ goals
15%
Swan City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sarasota Paradise (draw refunded)
90%
Swan City (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarasota Paradise at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Swan City away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarasota Paradise attack 2.15 + Swan City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.49

Swan City attack 0.58 + Sarasota Paradise defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sarasota Paradise scores more
76%
level
15%
Swan City scores more
8%

Sarasota Paradise at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sarasota Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sarasota Paradise 3 – 2 Swan City

Sarasota Paradise beat Swan City 3-2 in USL League Two on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High in Sarasota, Florida.