Swan City 3–0 Pinellas County: Result & Stats

Swan City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pinellas County

5/29/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 4Lake Parker Park Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Swan City34%

×Draw26%

Pinellas County40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swan CityExpected goals in this matchPinellas County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.43

Swan City

1.31

Pinellas County

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.78

1.08

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Swan City

1.00

Pinellas County

1.78

allows per match

Swan City

1.08

Pinellas County

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swan City+0.00on par

Pinellas County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swan City ↓

Pinellas County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Swan City or draw

60%

Swan City or Pinellas County

74%

Draw or Pinellas County

66%

Winning margin

Swan City wins by 2+

15%

Pinellas County wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Swan City 1+ goals

73%

Swan City 2+ goals

38%

Swan City 3+ goals

14%

Pinellas County 1+ goals

76%

Pinellas County 2+ goals

42%

Pinellas County 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Swan City (draw refunded)

46%

Pinellas County (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swan City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Pinellas County away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swan City attack 1.00 + Pinellas County defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pinellas County attack 1.78 + Swan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swan City scores more

34%

level

26%

Pinellas County scores more

40%

Pinellas County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pinellas County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff