Pinellas County 4–1 Swan City: Result & Stats

Pinellas County

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Swan City

6/8/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 7Johnson Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Pinellas County70%

×Draw16%

Swan City13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pinellas CountyExpected goals in this matchSwan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.07

Pinellas County

2.63

Swan City

1.07

Pinellas County creates 146% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

2.44

creates per match

0.58

1.56

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Pinellas County

2.44

Swan City

0.58

allows per match

Pinellas County

1.56

Swan City

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pinellas County+0.00on par

Swan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinellas County ↓

Swan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Pinellas County or draw

87%

Pinellas County or Swan City

84%

Draw or Swan City

30%

Winning margin

Pinellas County wins by 2+

49%

Swan City wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pinellas County 1+ goals

93%

Pinellas County 2+ goals

73%

Pinellas County 3+ goals

48%

Swan City 1+ goals

66%

Swan City 2+ goals

29%

Swan City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pinellas County (draw refunded)

84%

Swan City (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinellas County at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Swan City away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinellas County attack 2.44 + Swan City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.63

Swan City attack 0.58 + Pinellas County defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Pinellas County scores more

70%

level

16%

Swan City scores more

13%

Pinellas County at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Pinellas County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Pinellas County 4–1 Swan City

Pinellas County beat Swan City 4-1 in USL League Two on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Johnson Athletic Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Pinellas County vs Swan City — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Pinellas County 4–1 Swan City