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Swan City vs Nona — USL League Two 2018

Swan City
Swan City
FT
0 – 0
Nona
Nona
5/13/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 5Lake Myrtle Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Swan City27%
×Draw26%
Nona47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swan City
1.09
Nona
1.52

Nona creates 39% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

creates per match

Swan City
1.00
Nona
1.97

allows per match

Swan City
1.08
Nona
1.19

finishing

Swan City+0.00on par
Nona+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swan City ↓

Nona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Swan City or draw
53%
Swan City or Nona
74%
Draw or Nona
73%

Winning margin

Swan City wins by 2+
10%
Nona wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Swan City 1+ goals
66%
Swan City 2+ goals
30%
Swan City 3+ goals
10%
Nona 1+ goals
78%
Nona 2+ goals
45%
Nona 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Swan City (draw refunded)
37%
Nona (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swan City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Nona away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swan City attack 1.00 + Nona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Nona attack 1.97 + Swan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Swan City scores more
27%
level
26%
Nona scores more
47%

Nona at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Swan City 0–0 Nona

Swan City and Nona drew 0-0 in USL League Two on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Lake Myrtle Sports Park in Auburndale, Florida.