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Nona vs Swan City — USL League Two 2018

Nona
Nona
FT
4 – 1
Swan City
Swan City
5/27/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 4Austin-Tindall Regional Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Nona78%
×Draw15%
Swan City7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nona
2.38
Swan City
0.57

Nona creates 318% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 12 away

creates per match

Nona
1.94
Swan City
0.58

allows per match

Nona
0.56
Swan City
2.83

finishing

Nona+0.00on par
Swan City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nona ↓

Swan City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nona or draw
93%
Nona or Swan City
85%
Draw or Swan City
22%

Winning margin

Nona wins by 2+
54%
Swan City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nona 1+ goals
91%
Nona 2+ goals
68%
Nona 3+ goals
42%
Swan City 1+ goals
43%
Swan City 2+ goals
11%
Swan City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nona (draw refunded)
92%
Swan City (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nona at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.56 · 32 matches

Swan City away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nona attack 1.94 + Swan City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.38

Swan City attack 0.58 + Nona defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Nona scores more
78%
level
15%
Swan City scores more
7%

Nona at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Nona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nona 4 – 1 Swan City

Nona beat Swan City 4-1 in USL League Two on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Austin-Tindall Regional Park in Kissimmee.