Swan City 1–1 Brevard: Result & Stats

Swan City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brevard

6/14/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 9Thomas W. Bryant Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Swan City62%

×Draw20%

Brevard18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swan CityExpected goals in this matchBrevard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.06

Swan City

2.16

Brevard

1.06

Swan City creates 104% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

1.04

1.08

allows per match

3.32

creates per match

Swan City

1.00

Brevard

1.04

allows per match

Swan City

1.08

Brevard

3.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swan City+0.00on par

Brevard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swan City ↓

Brevard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Swan City or draw

82%

Swan City or Brevard

80%

Draw or Brevard

38%

Winning margin

Swan City wins by 2+

39%

Brevard wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Swan City 1+ goals

88%

Swan City 2+ goals

63%

Swan City 3+ goals

36%

Brevard 1+ goals

65%

Brevard 2+ goals

29%

Brevard 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Swan City (draw refunded)

78%

Brevard (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swan City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Brevard away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swan City attack 1.00 + Brevard defence 3.32 → ÷2 → 2.16

Brevard attack 1.04 + Swan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Swan City scores more

62%

level

20%

Brevard scores more

18%

Swan City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Swan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff