Brevard 1–2 Swan City: Result & Stats

Brevard

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Swan City

6/21/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 11Holy Trinity Episcopal Academy Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brevard54%

×Draw21%

Swan City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrevardExpected goals in this matchSwan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.42

Brevard

2.16

Swan City

1.42

Brevard creates 52% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

1.48

creates per match

0.58

2.26

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Brevard

1.48

Swan City

0.58

allows per match

Brevard

2.26

Swan City

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brevard+0.00on par

Swan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brevard ↓

Swan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Brevard or draw

75%

Brevard or Swan City

79%

Draw or Swan City

46%

Winning margin

Brevard wins by 2+

33%

Swan City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Brevard 1+ goals

88%

Brevard 2+ goals

63%

Brevard 3+ goals

36%

Swan City 1+ goals

76%

Swan City 2+ goals

41%

Swan City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Brevard (draw refunded)

68%

Swan City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brevard at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.26 · 23 matches

Swan City away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brevard attack 1.48 + Swan City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.16

Swan City attack 0.58 + Brevard defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brevard scores more

54%

level

21%

Swan City scores more

25%

Brevard at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brevard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff