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SVV Scheveningen vs OFC Oostzaan — Tweede Divisie 2019

SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
11/5/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 13Sportpark Houtrust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SVV Scheveningen56%
×Draw22%
OFC Oostzaan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVV Scheveningen
2.01
OFC Oostzaan
1.20

SVV Scheveningen creates 67% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.02
OFC Oostzaan
0.71

allows per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.69
OFC Oostzaan
3.00

finishing

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVV Scheveningen ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SVV Scheveningen or draw
78%
SVV Scheveningen or OFC Oostzaan
78%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
44%

Winning margin

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
33%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
87%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
59%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
32%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
70%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
34%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
71%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVV Scheveningen at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.69 · 84 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.02 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SVV Scheveningen scores more
56%
level
22%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
22%

SVV Scheveningen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SVV Scheveningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SVV Scheveningen vs OFC Oostzaan

SVV Scheveningen and OFC Oostzaan drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Houtrust in Den Haag.