OFC Oostzaan 1–1 SVV Scheveningen: Result & Stats

OFC Oostzaan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SVV Scheveningen

4/22/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 30Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan32%

×Draw24%

SVV Scheveningen45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFC OostzaanExpected goals in this matchSVV Scheveningen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.68

OFC Oostzaan

1.38

SVV Scheveningen

1.68

SVV Scheveningen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

1.24

creates per match

1.12

2.24

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan

1.24

SVV Scheveningen

1.12

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan

2.24

SVV Scheveningen

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

SVV Scheveningen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw

55%

OFC Oostzaan or SVV Scheveningen

76%

Draw or SVV Scheveningen

68%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

14%

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

75%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

40%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

16%

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals

81%

SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals

50%

SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

42%

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more

32%

level

24%

SVV Scheveningen scores more

45%

SVV Scheveningen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SVV Scheveningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff