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SVV Scheveningen vs GVVV Veenendaal — Tweede Divisie 2019

SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
8/31/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 3Sportpark Houtrust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

SVV Scheveningen36%
×Draw25%
GVVV Veenendaal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVV Scheveningen
1.43
GVVV Veenendaal
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 85 away

creates per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.04
GVVV Veenendaal
1.35

allows per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.70
GVVV Veenendaal
1.82

finishing

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVV Scheveningen ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SVV Scheveningen or draw
60%
SVV Scheveningen or GVVV Veenendaal
75%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
64%

Winning margin

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
17%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
76%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
42%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
17%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
78%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
45%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
47%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVV Scheveningen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 83 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.04 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.43

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.35 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SVV Scheveningen scores more
36%
level
25%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
40%

GVVV Veenendaal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SVV Scheveningen vs GVVV Veenendaal

GVVV Veenendaal beat SVV Scheveningen 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Houtrust in Den Haag.