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GVVV Veenendaal vs SVV Scheveningen — Tweede Divisie 2019

GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
1/25/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 20Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

GVVV Veenendaal45%
×Draw24%
SVV Scheveningen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVVV Veenendaal
1.64
SVV Scheveningen
1.33

GVVV Veenendaal creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 83 away

creates per match

GVVV Veenendaal
1.76
SVV Scheveningen
1.12

allows per match

GVVV Veenendaal
1.55
SVV Scheveningen
1.52

finishing

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par
SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVVV Veenendaal ↓

SVV Scheveningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GVVV Veenendaal or draw
69%
GVVV Veenendaal or SVV Scheveningen
76%
Draw or SVV Scheveningen
55%

Winning margin

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
23%
SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
81%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
49%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
23%
SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
74%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
38%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
59%
SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVVV Veenendaal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.76 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GVVV Veenendaal scores more
45%
level
24%
SVV Scheveningen scores more
31%

GVVV Veenendaal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: GVVV Veenendaal 4–0 SVV Scheveningen

GVVV Veenendaal beat SVV Scheveningen 4-0 in Tweede Divisie on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Panhuis in Veenendaal.