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SVV Scheveningen vs De Treffers — Tweede Divisie 2019

SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
De Treffers
De Treffers
12/7/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 16Sportpark Houtrust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

SVV Scheveningen30%
×Draw24%
De Treffers46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVV Scheveningen
1.27
De Treffers
1.65

De Treffers creates 30% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 100 away

creates per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.04
De Treffers
1.60

allows per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.70
De Treffers
1.51

finishing

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par
De Treffers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVV Scheveningen ↓

De Treffers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SVV Scheveningen or draw
54%
SVV Scheveningen or De Treffers
76%
Draw or De Treffers
70%

Winning margin

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
12%
De Treffers wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
72%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
36%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
14%
De Treffers 1+ goals
81%
De Treffers 2+ goals
49%
De Treffers 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
39%
De Treffers (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVV Scheveningen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 83 matches

De Treffers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.04 + De Treffers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

De Treffers attack 1.60 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SVV Scheveningen scores more
30%
level
24%
De Treffers scores more
46%

De Treffers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SVV Scheveningen 1 – 2 De Treffers

De Treffers beat SVV Scheveningen 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Houtrust in Den Haag.