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SVV Scheveningen vs ADO '20 — Tweede Divisie 2019

SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ADO '20
ADO '20
10/12/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 9Sportpark Houtrust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SVV Scheveningen44%
×Draw25%
ADO '2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVV Scheveningen
1.56
ADO '20
1.26

SVV Scheveningen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 36 away

creates per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.02
ADO '20
0.83

allows per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.69
ADO '20
2.11

finishing

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par
ADO '20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVV Scheveningen ↓

ADO '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SVV Scheveningen or draw
69%
SVV Scheveningen or ADO '20
75%
Draw or ADO '20
56%

Winning margin

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
22%
ADO '20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
79%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
46%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
21%
ADO '20 1+ goals
72%
ADO '20 2+ goals
36%
ADO '20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
59%
ADO '20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVV Scheveningen at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.69 · 84 matches

ADO '20 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.02 + ADO '20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

ADO '20 attack 0.83 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SVV Scheveningen scores more
44%
level
25%
ADO '20 scores more
31%

SVV Scheveningen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SVV Scheveningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SVV Scheveningen vs ADO '20

SVV Scheveningen beat ADO '20 3-0 in Tweede Divisie on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Houtrust in Den Haag.