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ADO '20 vs SVV Scheveningen — Tweede Divisie 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
9/9/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 4Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ADO '2031%
×Draw24%
SVV Scheveningen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
1.35
SVV Scheveningen
1.65

SVV Scheveningen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 83 away

creates per match

ADO '20
1.19
SVV Scheveningen
1.12

allows per match

ADO '20
2.17
SVV Scheveningen
1.52

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

SVV Scheveningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
55%
ADO '20 or SVV Scheveningen
76%
Draw or SVV Scheveningen
69%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
14%
SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
74%
ADO '20 2+ goals
39%
ADO '20 3+ goals
15%
SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
81%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
49%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
41%
SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 1.19 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + ADO '20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ADO '20 scores more
31%
level
24%
SVV Scheveningen scores more
45%

SVV Scheveningen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SVV Scheveningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADO '20 vs SVV Scheveningen

ADO '20 beat SVV Scheveningen 4-1 in Tweede Divisie on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1 in Heemskerk.