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Svilengrad vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
FT
1 – 1
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
3/17/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 21Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad60%
×Draw22%
Sokol Markovo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
1.92
Sokol Markovo
0.95

Svilengrad creates 102% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 98 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
82%
Svilengrad or Sokol Markovo
78%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
40%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
35%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
85%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
57%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
30%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
61%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
25%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
77%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Svilengrad scores more
60%
level
22%
Sokol Markovo scores more
18%

Svilengrad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svilengrad 1 – 1 Sokol Markovo

Svilengrad and Sokol Markovo drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad).