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Sokol Markovo vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
3 – 1
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
9/1/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 4Stadion Sokol (Markovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sokol Markovo54%
×Draw22%
Svilengrad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.90
Svilengrad
1.17

Sokol Markovo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
77%
Sokol Markovo or Svilengrad
78%
Draw or Svilengrad
46%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
31%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
85%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
56%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
29%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
69%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
33%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
70%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
54%
level
22%
Svilengrad scores more
23%

Sokol Markovo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Markovo 3 – 1 Svilengrad

Sokol Markovo beat Svilengrad 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol (Markovo).