Svilengrad 2–1 Rodopa Smolyan: Result & Stats

Svilengrad

FT

2 – 1

Rodopa Smolyan

8/3/2019

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 1Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad49%

×Draw24%

Rodopa Smolyan26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SvilengradExpected goals in this matchRodopa Smolyan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.17

Svilengrad

1.69

Rodopa Smolyan

1.17

Svilengrad creates 44% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 120 away

1.41

creates per match

1.14

1.19

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Svilengrad

1.41

Rodopa Smolyan

1.14

allows per match

Svilengrad

1.19

Rodopa Smolyan

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw

74%

Svilengrad or Rodopa Smolyan

76%

Draw or Rodopa Smolyan

51%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+

26%

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals

82%

Svilengrad 2+ goals

50%

Svilengrad 3+ goals

24%

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals

69%

Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals

33%

Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)

65%

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Svilengrad scores more

49%

level

24%

Rodopa Smolyan scores more

26%

Svilengrad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff