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Rodopa Smolyan vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
FT
3 – 1
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
2/23/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 18Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan62%
×Draw21%
Svilengrad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodopa Smolyan
1.97
Svilengrad
0.90

Rodopa Smolyan creates 119% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 26 away

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.81
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.10
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw
83%
Rodopa Smolyan or Svilengrad
79%
Draw or Svilengrad
38%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
38%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
86%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
58%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
31%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
59%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
23%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
79%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.97

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more
62%
level
21%
Svilengrad scores more
17%

Rodopa Smolyan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Rodopa Smolyan 3–1 Svilengrad

Rodopa Smolyan beat Svilengrad 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Smolian.