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Svilengrad vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
CANC
00:00
Nesebar
Nesebar
5/2/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 29Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad38%
×Draw25%
Nesebar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
1.40
Nesebar
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 99 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
63%
Svilengrad or Nesebar
75%
Draw or Nesebar
62%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
18%
Nesebar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
75%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
41%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
17%
Nesebar 1+ goals
75%
Nesebar 2+ goals
40%
Nesebar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
51%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Svilengrad scores more
38%
level
25%
Nesebar scores more
37%

Svilengrad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Svilengrad host Nesebar

May 2, 2020: Svilengrad take on Nesebar in Third League - Southeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Svilengrad host Nesebar at Stadion Kolodruma.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.