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Nesebar vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
1 – 2
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
10/19/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 12Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nesebar74%
×Draw16%
Svilengrad10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.52
Svilengrad
0.82

Nesebar creates 207% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 26 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
90%
Nesebar or Svilengrad
84%
Draw or Svilengrad
26%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
52%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
92%
Nesebar 2+ goals
71%
Nesebar 3+ goals
45%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
56%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
20%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
88%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.52

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Nesebar scores more
74%
level
16%
Svilengrad scores more
10%

Nesebar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nesebar vs Svilengrad

Svilengrad beat Nesebar 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.