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Svilengrad vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
FT
1 – 1
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
2/29/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 19Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad34%
×Draw26%
Maritsa Plovdiv40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
1.28
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 81 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.59

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.16

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
60%
Svilengrad or Maritsa Plovdiv
74%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
66%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
15%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
72%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
37%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
14%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
75%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
40%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
47%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.59 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Svilengrad scores more
34%
level
26%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
40%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svilengrad 1 – 1 Maritsa Plovdiv

Svilengrad and Maritsa Plovdiv drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma in Svilengrad.