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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
2 – 0
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
10/13/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 10Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 (Plovdiv)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv74%
×Draw17%
Svilengrad9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.28
Svilengrad
0.66

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 245% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 26 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.44
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
0.63
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
91%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Svilengrad
83%
Draw or Svilengrad
26%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
50%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
90%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
66%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
39%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
48%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
14%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
89%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 81 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 2.44 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.28

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
74%
level
17%
Svilengrad scores more
9%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Maritsa Plovdiv 2–0 Svilengrad

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Svilengrad 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 (Plovdiv).