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Svilengrad vs Asenovets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
FT
2 – 1
Asenovets
Asenovets
11/3/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 13Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad58%
×Draw21%
Asenovets21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
2.01
Asenovets
1.13

Svilengrad creates 78% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Asenovets
1.07

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Asenovets
2.61

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Asenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Asenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
79%
Svilengrad or Asenovets
79%
Draw or Asenovets
42%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
34%
Asenovets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
87%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
59%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
32%
Asenovets 1+ goals
68%
Asenovets 2+ goals
31%
Asenovets 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
73%
Asenovets (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Asenovets away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Asenovets defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.01

Asenovets attack 1.07 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Svilengrad scores more
58%
level
21%
Asenovets scores more
21%

Svilengrad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svilengrad vs Asenovets

Svilengrad beat Asenovets 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad).