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Asenovets vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Asenovets
Asenovets
FT
3 – 3
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
5/8/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 30Stadion Shipka (Asenovgrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Asenovets57%
×Draw23%
Svilengrad21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asenovets
1.87
Svilengrad
1.04

Asenovets creates 80% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 26 away

creates per match

Asenovets
1.61
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Asenovets
1.40
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw
79%
Asenovets or Svilengrad
77%
Draw or Svilengrad
43%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+
33%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals
85%
Asenovets 2+ goals
56%
Asenovets 3+ goals
29%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
65%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
28%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)
73%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.87

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Asenovets scores more
57%
level
23%
Svilengrad scores more
21%

Asenovets at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Asenovets 3–3 Svilengrad

Asenovets and Svilengrad drew 3-3 in Third League - Southeast on May 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Shipka (Asenovgrad).