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Svidník vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
5/22/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 26Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Svidník54%
×Draw23%
Slovan Giraltovce22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.80
Slovan Giraltovce
1.07

Svidník creates 68% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
78%
Svidník or Slovan Giraltovce
77%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
46%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
31%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
83%
Svidník 2+ goals
54%
Svidník 3+ goals
27%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
66%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
29%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
71%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.80

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Svidník scores more
54%
level
23%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
22%

Svidník at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Svidník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Svidník 0–1 Slovan Giraltovce

Slovan Giraltovce beat Svidník 1-0 in 3. liga - East on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník in Svidník.