Slovan Giraltovce 3–0 Svidník: Result & Stats

Slovan Giraltovce

FT

3 – 0

Svidník

10/2/2021

3. liga - East · East - 11Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce64%

×Draw19%

Svidník17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan GiraltovceExpected goals in this matchSvidník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.08

Slovan Giraltovce

2.29

Svidník

1.08

Slovan Giraltovce creates 112% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 52 away

1.24

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

3.35

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.24

Svidník

1.06

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce

1.11

Svidník

3.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Svidník+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Svidník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw

83%

Slovan Giraltovce or Svidník

81%

Draw or Svidník

36%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

41%

Svidník wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

90%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

66%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

40%

Svidník 1+ goals

66%

Svidník 2+ goals

29%

Svidník 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

79%

Svidník (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Svidník away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Svidník defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.29

Svidník attack 1.06 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

64%

level

19%

Svidník scores more

17%

Slovan Giraltovce at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff