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Svidník vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
CANC
15:00
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
5/30/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Svidník46%
×Draw21%
Mladosť Kalša33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
2.06
Mladosť Kalša
1.73

Svidník creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 22 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
67%
Svidník or Mladosť Kalša
79%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
54%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
26%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
87%
Svidník 2+ goals
61%
Svidník 3+ goals
34%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
82%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
52%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
58%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Svidník scores more
46%
level
21%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
33%

Svidník at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Svidník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svidník face Mladosť Kalša (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Svidník hosting Mladosť Kalša. Match starts May 30, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.