Mladosť Kalša 1–0 Svidník: Result & Stats

Mladosť Kalša

FT

1 – 0

Svidník

8/22/2021

3. liga - East · East - 5Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša66%

×Draw16%

Svidník17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladosť KalšaExpected goals in this matchSvidník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.47

Mladosť Kalša

2.92

Svidník

1.47

Mladosť Kalša creates 99% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 52 away

2.48

creates per match

1.06

1.87

allows per match

3.35

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša

2.48

Svidník

1.06

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša

1.87

Svidník

3.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Svidník+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Svidník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw

83%

Mladosť Kalša or Svidník

84%

Draw or Svidník

34%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+

46%

Svidník wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals

94%

Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals

78%

Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals

55%

Svidník 1+ goals

77%

Svidník 2+ goals

43%

Svidník 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)

79%

Svidník (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Svidník away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Svidník defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.92

Svidník attack 1.06 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more

66%

level

16%

Svidník scores more

17%

Mladosť Kalša at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff