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Svidník vs Lipany — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lipany
Lipany
3/5/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 16Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Svidník32%
×Draw24%
Lipany43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.36
Lipany
1.61

Lipany creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 80 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Lipany
1.57

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Lipany
1.45

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Lipany+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Lipany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
57%
Svidník or Lipany
76%
Draw or Lipany
68%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
14%
Lipany wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
74%
Svidník 2+ goals
39%
Svidník 3+ goals
16%
Lipany 1+ goals
80%
Lipany 2+ goals
48%
Lipany 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
43%
Lipany (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Lipany away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.45 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Lipany defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lipany attack 1.57 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Svidník scores more
32%
level
24%
Lipany scores more
43%

Lipany at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svidník vs Lipany

Lipany beat Svidník 2-0 in 3. liga - East on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník in Svidník.