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Lipany vs Svidník — 3. liga - East 2020

Lipany
Lipany
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Svidník
Svidník
8/6/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 1Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lipany78%
×Draw13%
Svidník9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lipany
3.05
Svidník
0.97

Lipany creates 214% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 52 away

creates per match

Lipany
2.76
Svidník
1.06

allows per match

Lipany
0.87
Svidník
3.35

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par
Svidník+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Svidník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lipany or draw
91%
Lipany or Svidník
87%
Draw or Svidník
22%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+
59%
Svidník wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals
95%
Lipany 2+ goals
80%
Lipany 3+ goals
57%
Svidník 1+ goals
62%
Svidník 2+ goals
25%
Svidník 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)
90%
Svidník (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Svidník away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Svidník defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 3.05

Svidník attack 1.06 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Lipany scores more
78%
level
13%
Svidník scores more
9%

Lipany at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lipany vs Svidník

Lipany beat Svidník 2-1 in 3. liga - East on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lipany.