Svidník 1–3 Družstevník Plavnica: Result & Stats

Svidník

FT

1 – 3

Družstevník Plavnica

8/16/2020

3. liga - East · East - 4Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Svidník47%

×Draw23%

Družstevník Plavnica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SvidníkExpected goals in this matchDružstevník Plavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.41

Svidník

1.80

Družstevník Plavnica

1.41

Svidník creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 6 away

1.27

creates per match

1.17

1.65

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Svidník

1.27

Družstevník Plavnica

1.17

allows per match

Svidník

1.65

Družstevník Plavnica

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Svidník or draw

70%

Svidník or Družstevník Plavnica

77%

Draw or Družstevník Plavnica

53%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+

25%

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals

83%

Svidník 2+ goals

54%

Svidník 3+ goals

27%

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals

76%

Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals

41%

Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)

61%

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Svidník scores more

47%

level

23%

Družstevník Plavnica scores more

30%

Svidník at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Svidník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff