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Družstevník Plavnica vs Svidník — 3. liga - East 2020

Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
CANC
13:30
Svidník
Svidník
4/4/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 19Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Družstevník Plavnica71%
×Draw16%
Svidník13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Družstevník Plavnica
2.62
Svidník
1.03

Družstevník Plavnica creates 154% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 52 away

creates per match

Družstevník Plavnica
1.88
Svidník
1.06

allows per match

Družstevník Plavnica
1.00
Svidník
3.35

finishing

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par
Svidník+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Družstevník Plavnica ↓

Svidník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Družstevník Plavnica or draw
87%
Družstevník Plavnica or Svidník
84%
Draw or Svidník
29%

Winning margin

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
49%
Svidník wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
93%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
73%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
48%
Svidník 1+ goals
64%
Svidník 2+ goals
28%
Svidník 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
85%
Svidník (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Družstevník Plavnica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Svidník away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.88 + Svidník defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.62

Svidník attack 1.06 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Družstevník Plavnica scores more
71%
level
16%
Svidník scores more
13%

Družstevník Plavnica at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Družstevník Plavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Družstevník Plavnica host Svidník

April 4, 2021: Družstevník Plavnica take on Svidník in 3. liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Družstevník Plavnica host Svidník at Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.