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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
10/29/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 11Stadion Dimitar Burkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte74%
×Draw15%
Sportist G.Toshevo11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.82
Sportist G.Toshevo
1.00

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 182% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 40 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
89%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Sportist G.Toshevo
85%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
26%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
54%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
94%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
77%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
52%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
63%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
26%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
87%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.82

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
74%
level
15%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
11%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Sportist G.Toshevo

Svetkavitsa Targovishte beat Sportist G.Toshevo 5-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Burkov in Targovishte.