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Sportist G.Toshevo vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte — Third League - Northeast 2018

Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
CANC
13:00
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
9/30/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 8Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo39%
×Draw22%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.88
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.46
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.29

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.49
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.30

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par
Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw
61%
Sportist G.Toshevo or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
78%
Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
61%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
21%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
85%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
56%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
29%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
85%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
56%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
50%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.88

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
39%
level
22%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
39%

Sportist G.Toshevo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportist G.Toshevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sportist G.Toshevo host Svetkavitsa Targovishte

September 30, 2023: Sportist G.Toshevo take on Svetkavitsa Targovishte in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sportist G.Toshevo host Svetkavitsa Targovishte at Stadion Sportist.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.