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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
FT
1 – 0
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
3/6/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 18Stadion Dimitar Burkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte35%
×Draw24%
Shumen 200741%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.52
Shumen 2007
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 36 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
59%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Shumen 2007
76%
Draw or Shumen 2007
65%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
17%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
78%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
45%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
20%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
81%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
49%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
46%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
35%
level
24%
Shumen 2007 scores more
41%

Shumen 2007 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1–0 Shumen 2007

Svetkavitsa Targovishte beat Shumen 2007 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Burkov in Targovishte.