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Shumen 2007 vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
1 – 0
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
8/22/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 3Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200766%
×Draw18%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
2.38
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.07

Shumen 2007 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 105 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.29

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.30

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
84%
Shumen 2007 or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
82%
Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
34%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
44%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
91%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
68%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
42%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
66%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
29%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
81%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.38

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
66%
level
18%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
16%

Shumen 2007 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Shumen 2007 1–0 Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Shumen 2007 beat Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.