Svetkavitsa Targovishte 0–3 Septemvri Tervel

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

FT

0 – 3

Septemvri Tervel

4/15/2026

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte32%

×Draw26%

Septemvri Tervel42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Svetkavitsa TargovishteExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Tervel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.43

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.20

Septemvri Tervel

1.43

Septemvri Tervel creates 19% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 104 away

1.51

creates per match

1.60

1.26

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.51

Septemvri Tervel

1.60

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.26

Septemvri Tervel

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Septemvri Tervel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw

58%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Septemvri Tervel

74%

Draw or Septemvri Tervel

68%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+

13%

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals

70%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals

34%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals

12%

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals

76%

Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals

42%

Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)

43%

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.20

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more

32%

level

26%

Septemvri Tervel scores more

42%

Septemvri Tervel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff