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Septemvri Tervel vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
FT
6 – 0
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
3/22/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Septemvri Tervel71%
×Draw17%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
2.55
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
0.97

Septemvri Tervel creates 163% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.29

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.30

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
88%
Septemvri Tervel or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
83%
Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
29%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
49%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
92%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
72%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
46%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
62%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
25%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
85%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.55

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
71%
level
17%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
12%

Septemvri Tervel at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Septemvri Tervel 6–0 Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Septemvri Tervel beat Svetkavitsa Targovishte 6-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Tervel.