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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Inter Dobrich — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
FT
5 – 0
Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
8/29/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 4Stadion Dimitar Burkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte81%
×Draw12%
Inter Dobrich8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
3.22
Inter Dobrich
0.92

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 250% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 14 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Inter Dobrich
0.57

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Inter Dobrich
4.93

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Inter Dobrich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
92%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Inter Dobrich
88%
Draw or Inter Dobrich
19%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
62%
Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
96%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
82%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
61%
Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
60%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
23%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
91%
Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.22

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
81%
level
12%
Inter Dobrich scores more
8%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Inter Dobrich

Svetkavitsa Targovishte beat Inter Dobrich 5-0 in Third League - Northeast on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Burkov in Targovishte.