Inter Dobrich 1–2 Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Inter Dobrich

FT

1 – 2

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

3/14/2021

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 19Stadion Sgurta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter Dobrich20%

×Draw17%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter DobrichExpected goals in this matchSvetkavitsa Targovishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.83

Inter Dobrich

1.57

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

2.83

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 80% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 105 away

0.85

creates per match

1.29

4.38

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Inter Dobrich

0.85

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.29

allows per match

Inter Dobrich

4.38

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Dobrich ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Inter Dobrich or draw

37%

Inter Dobrich or Svetkavitsa Targovishte

83%

Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte

80%

Winning margin

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+

9%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals

79%

Inter Dobrich 2+ goals

46%

Inter Dobrich 3+ goals

21%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals

94%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals

77%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)

24%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Dobrich at home — creates 0.85, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Dobrich attack 0.85 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.57

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Inter Dobrich scores more

20%

level

17%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more

63%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff