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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Hitrino — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
FT
0 – 0
Hitrino
Hitrino
4/17/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 24Stadion Dimitar Burkov (Targovishte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte52%
×Draw25%
Hitrino24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.61
Hitrino
1.00

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 61% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 24 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Hitrino
0.75

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Hitrino
1.71

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Hitrino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
76%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Hitrino
75%
Draw or Hitrino
48%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
27%
Hitrino wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
80%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
48%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
22%
Hitrino 1+ goals
63%
Hitrino 2+ goals
26%
Hitrino 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
69%
Hitrino (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
52%
level
25%
Hitrino scores more
24%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Hitrino

Svetkavitsa Targovishte and Hitrino drew 0-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Burkov (Targovishte).