Hitrino 0–3 Svetkavitsa Targovishte: Result & Stats

Hitrino

FT

0 – 3

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

3/21/2020

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 20Stadion Hitrino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hitrino56%

×Draw21%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HitrinoExpected goals in this matchSvetkavitsa Targovishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.29

Hitrino

2.13

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.29

Hitrino creates 65% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 105 away

1.96

creates per match

1.29

1.30

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Hitrino

1.96

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.29

allows per match

Hitrino

1.30

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw

77%

Hitrino or Svetkavitsa Targovishte

79%

Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte

44%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+

34%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals

88%

Hitrino 2+ goals

63%

Hitrino 3+ goals

35%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals

72%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals

37%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)

71%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.13

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hitrino scores more

56%

level

21%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more

23%

Hitrino at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hitrino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff