Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2–1 Dunav ot Ruse II

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

FT

2 – 1

Dunav ot Ruse II

5/11/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 27Stadion Dimitar Burkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte64%

×Draw20%

Dunav ot Ruse II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Svetkavitsa TargovishteExpected goals in this matchDunav ot Ruse II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.00

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

2.18

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.00

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 118% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 27 away

1.51

creates per match

0.74

1.26

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.51

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.74

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.26

Dunav ot Ruse II

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw

84%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Dunav ot Ruse II

80%

Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II

36%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+

41%

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals

89%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals

64%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals

37%

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

63%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

26%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)

80%

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.18

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more

64%

level

20%

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

16%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff