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Dunav ot Ruse II vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
FT
1 – 2
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
9/18/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 6Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav ot Ruse II42%
×Draw23%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.74
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.57

Dunav ot Ruse II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 105 away

creates per match

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.19
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.29

allows per match

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.85
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.30

finishing

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par
Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav ot Ruse II ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dunav ot Ruse II or draw
65%
Dunav ot Ruse II or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
77%
Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
58%

Winning margin

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
22%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
82%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
52%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
25%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
79%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
46%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
55%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav ot Ruse II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 1.19 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.74

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
42%
level
23%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
35%

Dunav ot Ruse II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dunav ot Ruse II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Dunav ot Ruse II 1–2 Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Svetkavitsa Targovishte beat Dunav ot Ruse II 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dunav in Rousse.