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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Benkovski Isperih — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
AWD
0 – 3
Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
4/22/2026Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte44%
×Draw24%
Benkovski Isperih32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.66
Benkovski Isperih
1.39

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 19% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 41 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Benkovski Isperih
1.51

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Benkovski Isperih
1.80

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Benkovski Isperih →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
68%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Benkovski Isperih
76%
Draw or Benkovski Isperih
56%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
23%
Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
81%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
49%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
23%
Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
75%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
40%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
58%
Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Benkovski Isperih away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

Benkovski Isperih attack 1.51 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
44%
level
24%
Benkovski Isperih scores more
32%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Benkovski Isperih — Match Preview

Svetkavitsa Targovishte face Benkovski Isperih on April 22, 2026 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.