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Benkovski Isperih vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
10/19/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 10Stadion Branichevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Benkovski Isperih60%
×Draw20%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Isperih
2.29
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26

Benkovski Isperih creates 82% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 105 away

creates per match

Benkovski Isperih
2.27
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.29

allows per match

Benkovski Isperih
1.23
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.30

finishing

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par
Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Isperih ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Benkovski Isperih or draw
80%
Benkovski Isperih or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
80%
Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
40%

Winning margin

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
38%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
90%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
66%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
40%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
72%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
36%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
75%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Isperih at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Isperih attack 2.27 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.29

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Benkovski Isperih scores more
60%
level
20%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
20%

Benkovski Isperih at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Benkovski Isperih 3–0 Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Benkovski Isperih beat Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Branichevo in Branichevo.